Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.40% sales targets for the Model Y crossover, which the car maker expects to unveil today at 8 p.m. Pacific, are on net “aggressive,” said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein. If the vehicle captures the same share as the Model X SUV does in its category, it would point to 350,000 to 400,000 units sold, Sacconaghi said. “To get to ~750k units/year would require Model Y to capture similar share as the Model S (mid-teens), perhaps coupled with Tesla upselling customers from lower-priced segments,” he said in a note Thursday. The crossover’s base price could start around $40,000, but more likely around $55,000 as Tesla will want to manage the price point against cannibalization, he said. Tesla is unlikely to disclose Model Y reservations since they’d be likely lower than initial Model 3 reservations and the company may not want to set a precedent for disclosing orders, Sacconaghi said. Tesla shares rose 0.5% in midday trading and have lost 11% in the past 12 months, contrasting with gains around 2% for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.11%
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